Join today
Strategies / Mean reversion / Big Bar Fade

Big Bar Fade: betting against oversized candles

When a candle body is more than twice ATR(12), this strategy trades against it. A big down candle triggers a long and a big up candle triggers a short. The stop equals the signal candle body and the target is 2.5 times that body.

Mean reversionLong & shortSwingUSD/JPYDaily
2.28Profit factor
37,020Net profit JPY
46.51%Win rate
172Trades
-3,240Max drawdown
215Avg trade

Best run of 5. USD/JPY, Daily, spread 1, from run pf:2026-09-24-USDJPY-D.tsv:8.

Entry rules, long

  1. Members only
  2. The candle closes down (close below open)

Entry rules, short

  1. Members only
  2. The candle closes up (close above open)

Exit rules

  1. Stop loss equal to the signal candle's body, in points
  2. Members only
  3. An opposite signal reverses the trade

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-09-25
InstrumentUSD/JPY, Daily
Spread1 points
Contracts1
Starting capital1,000,000
CostsSpread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
BarsUp to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested2026-09-25

Parameters

positionSize
Contracts per trade
1
atrPeriod
ATR length
12
bodyAtrMultiple
Candle body must exceed this many ATRs
2
targetMultiple
Profit target as a multiple of the candle body
2.5

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
USD/JPYBest runDaily2.28 17246.5137,020 JPY-3,240
Dow JonesDailyn/a 6842.6519,369 EUR-5,848
Nikkei 2254 hoursn/a 24236.7816,148 USD-9,067
FTSE 100Dailyn/a 6338.104,132 EUR-1,333
S&P 500Dailyn/a 9236.961,961 EUR-1,057

Charts

Results by run

Net profit against max drawdown

Net profitMax drawdown
0-10K-5K25K50KUSD/JPY · DailyDow Jones · DailyNikkei 225 · 4 hoursFTSE 100 · DailyS&P 500 · Daily

The code

ProBuilder, rewritten to house standard

Every file in the library uses the same header, the same section order and the same variable names. The numbers above were produced by the original version before the rewrite, and the rewrite has not yet been compiled in ProRealTime.

// ============================================================
// Big Bar Fade
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Long & short
// Timeframe tested: Daily
// ============================================================

// --- Settings ---
DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

// --- Parameters ---
positionSize = 1       // contracts per trade
atrPeriod = 12         // ATR length
bodyAtrMultiple = 2    // candle body must exceed this many ATRs
targetMultiple = 2.5   // profit target as a multiple of the candle body

// --- Indicators ---
atrValue = AverageTrueRange[atrPeriod](close)
bodySize = ABS(open - close)
bigBar = bodySize > (atrValue * bodyAtrMultiple)

21 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Read this first

Known weaknesses

  • The best run had only 172 trades, and the other tests between 63 and 242, so the samples are small.
  • Stops scale with the signal candle, so a very large candle means a very large loss if the fade fails.
  • A repeat signal while in the same trade resets the stop and target to the new candle body, which changes the risk mid trade.
  • Win rates were below half on every run (from 36.78% to 46.51%), so results depend on the 2.5 times target being hit often enough.

Indicators used

ATR

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button above the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Questions

About this strategy

Can Big Bar Fade run in ProOrder?

Yes. Stop and target are set inside the entry code as point distances. The rewrite still needs a compile check before live use.

Which markets were tested?

USD/JPY Daily did best with JPY 37,020 and a profit factor of 2.28. Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were also profitable, with S&P 500 Daily lowest at EUR 1,961.41.

What risk should I plan for at 1 contract?

On USD/JPY Daily max drawdown was JPY 3,240. On Nikkei 225 4 hours it reached USD 9,067.3, higher than on any other run listed.

Why mostly daily bars?

Big daily candles often reflect news driven overreactions, which this rule tries to fade. Daily bars also keep the number of signals low.

Related

Strategies like this one

ATR Band

Uses the same indicator.

10.31 PF · 53 trades

Supertrend Counter Trend

Best run on the same market, USD/JPY.

3.47 PF · 1,444 trades

Triple Band Market Model

A similar profit factor.

2.27 PF · 203 trades

See how other traders handle mean reversion. Join the ProRealAlgos community waitlist.

The ProRealAlgos community gets the full rules, the complete code and the automated portfolio.

Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs