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Strategies / Mean reversion / Bear Regime Rally Short

Bear Regime Rally Short

The strategy sells short when price is at least 2% below the 250-bar average, above the 5-bar average, and RSI(3) crosses above 70. It covers the short when price falls below the 5-bar average or rises above the 250-bar average.

Mean reversionShort onlySwingEUR/USD1 hour
1.73Profit factor
18,473Net profit USD
65.00%Win rate
260Trades
-2,999Max drawdown
71.05Avg trade

Best run of 11. EUR/USD, 1 hour, spread 1, from run pf:2026-10-05-EURUSD-1h.tsv:2.

Entry rules, short

  1. The close is at least 2% below the 250-bar simple moving average
  2. The close is above the 5-bar simple moving average

Exit rules

  1. The close falls below the 5-bar simple moving average or rises above the 250-bar simple moving average

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-10-05
InstrumentEUR/USD, 1 hour
Spread1 points
Starting capital1,000,000
CostsSpread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
BarsUp to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested2026-10-05

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
EUR/USDBest run1 hour1.73 26065.0018,473 USD-2,999
USD/JPYDailyn/a 34965.04281,400 USD-214,000
EUR/USD4 hoursn/a 39262.7612,749 USD-6,781
USD/JPY5 minn/a 862.505,200 USD-4,370
GBP/USDDailyn/a 30963.112,794 USD-2,361
FTSE 100Dailyn/a 18764.171,885 EUR-960
Dow Jones5 minn/a 3661.111,346 EUR-724
GBP/USD1 hourn/a 23564.681,190 USD-740
S&P 500Dailyn/a 23151.08810 EUR-351
FTSE 1005 minn/a 2759.2694.80 EUR-94.30
DAX 402 minn/a 771.4378.00 EUR-77.70

Charts

Results by run

Top 10 of 11 runs. The full list is in the table above.

Net profitMax drawdown

The code

ProBuilder code, as tested

// ==============================================================
// Bear Regime Rally Short
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Short only
// Timeframe tested: 1 hour
// ==============================================================

DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

malong = Average[250](close)
mashort = Average[5](close)
myRsi = RSI[3](close)

12 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Setup

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button on the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Indicators used

SMARSI
Longer historyRe-run on up to 1,000,000 barsEUR/USD · 1 hour · older data 0.00 USD

EUR/USD had no history beyond the standard run, so both runs used 177,000 bars.

EUR/USD · 1 hour

Bars available177,000
Net, standard 200,000-bar run18,473.00 USD
Net, long run18,473.00 USD
Net on the older data alone0.00 USD
Read this firstKnown weaknesses2 points
  • The code sets no stop loss, so a losing trade stays open until an exit signal arrives.
  • Results include the spread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.

Questions

About this strategy

Can I run Bear Regime Rally Short in ProOrder?

Yes. The code is ProBuilder and runs as an automated ProOrder system. Backtest it on your own account with your own spread and position size before trading it live.

Which markets was it tested on?

It was tested on 11 market and timeframe combinations. The best run was EUR/USD, 1 hour, with a profit factor of 1.73 over 260 trades.

How large was the drawdown?

The best run had a maximum drawdown of 2,999 USD at the tested position size, against a net result of 18,473 USD.

Does it trade long, short or both?

It only takes short trades.

Related

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RSI(2) Trend Filter

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Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs