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Strategies / Mean reversion / Three Down Days

Three Down Days: A Short Term Dip Buyer

After three lower closes in a row, if the day also closes in the bottom 14% of its range, the system buys. It sells at the close of the third bar after entry, win or lose.

Mean reversionLong onlySwingAlphabetDaily
2.77Profit factor
8,487Net profit USD
61.90%Win rate
63Trades
-1,057Max drawdown
135Avg trade

Best run of 31. Alphabet, Daily, from run stock2-queue:2026-09-15-Alphabet.tsv:4.

Entry rules, long

  1. Three lower closes in a row
  2. Members only

Exit rules

  1. Members only
  2. No stop loss

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-09-15
InstrumentAlphabet, Daily
Capital per trade10,000
CostsNot recorded for this run.
BarsDaily bars, full available history
Last tested2026-09-15

Parameters

capitalPerTrade
Money committed to each trade
10000
ibsThreshold
Maximum internal bar strength at entry
0.14
maxBarsInTrade
Sell once more than this many bars have passed since entry
2

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
AlphabetBest runDaily2.77 6361.908,487 USD-1,057
MetaDaily2.64 7762.3413,259 USD-2,467
ExxonMobilDaily2.63 25162.9526,970 USD-2,537
VisaDaily2.63 10360.1912,279 USD-1,970
CiscoDaily2.34 20161.1929,800 USD-3,668
BroadcomDaily2.29 9062.2214,466 USD-2,522
IntelDaily2.20 27760.6542,409 USD-3,710
AppleDaily2.05 23045.2228,773 USD-7,155
Berkshire HathawayDaily1.92 19959.3013,456 USD-2,305
Bank of AmericaDaily1.88 21561.4026,749 USD-4,635
MastercardDaily1.84 12159.5012,342 USD-2,436
MicrosoftDaily1.83 24059.5822,153 USD-3,844
Johnson & JohnsonDaily1.78 25760.3115,056 USD-2,885
OracleDaily1.73 24653.2528,680 USD-3,666
CostcoDaily1.73 22558.6717,307 USD-4,651
WalmartDaily1.70 24154.7715,188 USD-2,934
Eli LillyDaily1.69 34355.6925,389 USD-3,443
AmazonDaily1.68 19060.0026,140 USD-6,161
Lam ResearchDaily1.58 24056.2529,888 USD-5,942
PalantirDaily1.57 4454.557,064 USD-4,223
Coca-ColaDaily1.55 30149.1713,646 USD-4,941
JPMorganDaily1.51 32653.6822,593 USD-5,113
CaterpillarDaily1.49 31652.8518,853 USD-3,154
Applied MaterialsDaily1.48 17452.3014,817 USD-7,809
S&P 500Daily1.47 31956.1111,181 EUR-4,532
NvidiaDaily1.37 17141.5214,658 USD-8,077
ChevronDaily1.26 19657.655,938 USD-4,723
MicronDaily1.25 26653.7617,352 USD-11,551
TeslaDaily1.21 9057.784,831 USD-4,883
AMDDaily1.20 28652.4513,220 USD-9,780
AbbVieDaily1.03 6648.48228 USD-2,862

Charts

Results by run

Profit factor by run

Above 1.0 made money, below 1.0 lost money.

0.01.32.53.85.01.0 = break-evenAlphabet · Daily2.77Meta · Daily2.64ExxonMobil · Daily2.63Visa · Daily2.63Cisco · Daily2.34Broadcom · Daily2.29Intel · Daily2.20Apple · Daily2.05Berkshire Hathaway · Daily1.92Bank of America · Daily1.88Mastercard · Daily1.84Microsoft · Daily1.83Johnson & Johnson · Daily1.78Oracle · Daily1.73Costco · Daily1.73Walmart · Daily1.70Eli Lilly · Daily1.69Amazon · Daily1.68Lam Research · Daily1.58Palantir · Daily1.57Coca-Cola · Daily1.55JPMorgan · Daily1.51Caterpillar · Daily1.49Applied Materials · Daily1.48

Net profit against max drawdown

Net profitMax drawdown
0-20K-10K25K50KIntel · DailyLam Research · DailyCisco · DailyApple · DailyOracle · DailyExxonMobil · DailyBank of America · DailyAmazon · DailyEli Lilly · DailyJPMorgan · DailyMicrosoft · DailyCaterpillar · DailyMicron · DailyCostco · DailyWalmart · DailyJohnson & Johnson · Daily

The code

ProBuilder, rewritten to house standard

Every file in the library uses the same header, the same section order and the same variable names. The numbers above were produced by the original version before the rewrite, and the rewrite has not yet been compiled in ProRealTime.

// ============================================================
// Three Down Days
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Long only
// Timeframe tested: Daily
// ============================================================

// --- Settings ---
DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

// --- Parameters ---
capitalPerTrade = 10000   // money committed to each trade
ibsThreshold = 0.14       // buy only when the close is near the day's low
maxBarsInTrade = 2        // sell once more than this many bars have passed

// --- Indicators ---
positionSize = capitalPerTrade / close
ibsValue = (close - low) / (high - low)

14 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Read this first

Known weaknesses

  • There is no stop loss, so a dip that keeps falling is held for the full holding period. Micron had a USD 11,550.84 drawdown.
  • The best run on Alphabet has only 63 trades, so the 2.77 profit factor is based on a small sample.
  • AbbVie made just USD 228.31 over 66 trades, and several stocks had profit factors near 1.2.
  • It is long only and tested on daily stock data only.

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button above the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Questions

About this strategy

Will it run in ProOrder?

Yes, on daily bars with 10000 divided by the close as the position size. The code has not been compile checked since the rewrite.

How did it do across stocks?

Every stock run was profitable. Intel made USD 42,408.50 with a profit factor of 2.2, and Cisco made USD 29,800.30.

What is the risk at this size?

Each trade puts 10000 USD to work. On Alphabet the maximum drawdown was USD 1,056.50, while Nvidia reached USD 8,077.18.

Why daily bars?

The pattern is about closing prices over several days. Holding for three bars on a daily chart gives a short swing trade.

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Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs