Strategies / Mean reversion / EMA Deviation Reversion

EMA Deviation Reversion

The idea buys when price closes at least 2% below a 55 period EMA, and sells short when it closes at least 2% above, provided the candle body is under 2%. Positions close when price returns to the EMA.

Mean reversionLong & shortIntradayEUR/USD3 min

5.65Profit factor

692,090Net profit USD

33.86%Win rate

127Trades

-49,159Max drawdown

5,450Avg trade

Best run of 41. EUR/USD, 3 min, spread 1, from run pf:2026-10-04-EURUSD-3m.tsv:1.

Entry rules, long

The candle body (absolute close minus open, as a percent of open) is under 2%.
No long position is open.

Entry rules, short

The candle body (absolute close minus open, as a percent of open) is under 2%.
No short position is open.

Exit rules

The close at or below the 55 period EMA closes an open short.
A 2% stop loss from the entry price applies to both long and short trades.
An opposite entry signal reverses the position.

Test conditions

Period	Up to 2026-10-04
Instrument	EUR/USD, 3 minutes
Spread	1 points
Starting capital	1,000,000
Costs	Spread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
Bars	Up to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested	2026-10-04

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

Market	Timeframe	PF	Trades	Win %	Net	Max DD
EUR/USDBest run	3 min	5.65	127	33.86	692,090 USD	-49,159
EUR/USD	2 min	5.09	188	29.79	899,442 USD	-53,696
Nikkei 225	30 min	1.34	413	61.50	26,803 USD	-6,288
EUR/USD	5 min	n/a	87	34.48	521,711 USD	-50,484
EUR/USD	10 min	n/a	41	34.15	204,818 USD	-38,222
USD/JPY	1 hour	n/a	81	61.73	202,750 USD	-84,590
EUR/USD	15 min	n/a	29	31.03	122,056 USD	-35,870
EUR/USD	30 min	n/a	18	55.56	121,677 USD	-27,398
USD/JPY	30 min	n/a	23	78.26	89,530 USD	-51,710
EUR/USD	1 hour	n/a	46	67.39	68,753 USD	-30,664
USD/JPY	5 min	n/a	3	100.00	44,910 USD	-12,640
USD/JPY	10 min	n/a	6	66.67	39,520 USD	-30,080
EUR/USD	4 hours	n/a	164	60.37	29,371 USD	-16,320
Nikkei 225	1 hour	n/a	595	54.45	26,961 USD	-6,895
USD/JPY	3 min	n/a	1	100.00	14,270 USD	-5,320
Dow Jones	1 hour	n/a	154	53.25	9,530 EUR	-5,321
Nikkei 225	15 min	n/a	175	59.43	8,979 USD	-6,696
Nikkei 225	5 min	n/a	53	60.38	8,760 USD	-3,217
Nikkei 225	10 min	n/a	82	56.10	7,003 USD	-4,361
Dow Jones	30 min	n/a	125	52.00	6,547 EUR	-5,316
FTSE 100	Daily	n/a	851	37.13	6,512 EUR	-3,511
DAX 40	15 min	n/a	149	59.73	5,983 EUR	-1,800
Nasdaq 100	30 min	n/a	427	56.67	5,546 EUR	-3,993
Dow Jones	15 min	n/a	110	54.55	5,209 EUR	-3,236
DAX 40	30 min	n/a	385	52.21	4,686 EUR	-3,205
FTSE 100	1 hour	n/a	473	53.70	4,460 EUR	-1,619
FTSE 100	4 hours	n/a	553	49.37	3,813 EUR	-2,906
Brent Crude	3 min	n/a	166	63.25	3,002 EUR	-1,959
Silver	1 min	n/a	40	70.00	2,579 USD	-2,530
Dow Jones	3 min	n/a	8	62.50	1,819 EUR	-1,430
US Crude Oil	1 min	n/a	75	60.00	1,716 EUR	-1,329
FTSE 100	30 min	n/a	203	56.65	1,700 EUR	-1,381
S&P 500	15 min	n/a	137	58.39	1,291 EUR	-591
S&P 500	1 hour	n/a	536	48.32	1,164 EUR	-1,043
S&P 500	30 min	n/a	245	54.69	1,042 EUR	-615
Gold	2 min	n/a	25	76.00	736 EUR	-194
FTSE 100	15 min	n/a	85	54.12	730 EUR	-661
Gold	3 min	n/a	27	70.37	726 EUR	-336
DAX 40	2 min	n/a	1	100.00	515 EUR	-345
Nasdaq 100	2 min	n/a	2	100.00	473 EUR	-258
Gold	5 min	n/a	36	58.33	389 EUR	-350

Charts

Results by run

Top 10 of 41 runs. The full list is in the table above.

Above 1.0 made money, below 1.0 lost money.

The code

ProBuilder code, as tested

// ==============================================================
// EMA Deviation Reversion
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Long & short
// Timeframe tested: 3 minutes
// ==============================================================

DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

ema = ExponentialAverage[55](close)
body = ABS(close - open) / open * 100

17 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Setup

How to load it

Copy the code with the copy button on the code block.
In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Indicators used

EMA

Longer historyRe-run on up to 1,000,000 barsEUR/USD · 3 min · older data 0.00 USD

On the long run with 997,000 bars the net result was 692,090 USD, against 692,090 USD on the standard 200,000-bar run. The older data alone gave 0 USD.

EUR/USD · 3 min

Bars available	997,000
Net, standard 200,000-bar run	692,090.00 USD
Net, long run	692,090.00 USD
Net on the older data alone	0.00 USD

Read this firstKnown weaknesses2 points

Results include the spread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
The code is published as it was backtested and has not been compiled again since.

Questions

About this strategy

Can I run EMA Deviation Reversion in ProOrder?

Yes. The code is ProBuilder and runs as an automated ProOrder system. Backtest it on your own account with your own spread and position size before trading it live.

Which markets was it tested on?

It was tested on 41 market and timeframe combinations. The best run was EUR/USD, 3 minutes, with a profit factor of 5.65 over 127 trades.

How large was the drawdown?

The best run had a maximum drawdown of 49,159 USD at the tested position size, against a net result of 692,090 USD.

Does it trade long, short or both?

It trades both long and short.

Reversal Pattern With Chaikin Volatility

Uses the same indicator.

2.26 PF · 6,872 trades

Slow MACD Slope

Best run on the same market, EUR/USD.

6.80 PF · 7,305 trades

Percent B Threshold Reversion

Also a mean reversion strategy.

5.66 PF · 2,377 trades

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