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Strategies / Mean reversion / Bollinger Band Fade

Bollinger Band Fade Strategy for ProRealTime

The system buys after three down closes push price under the lower Bollinger Band, and sells short after an up close above the upper band. It holds until price reverts through the 90-period SMA. An opposite signal can flip the position before that happens.

Mean reversionLong & shortSwingFTSE 1004 hours
n/aProfit factor
7,173Net profit EUR
66.15%Win rate
845Trades
-5,217Max drawdown
8.49Avg trade

Best run of 3. FTSE 100, 4 hours, spread 2, from run sweeps:2026-09-16-FTSE100-4h-opt.tsv:2.

Entry rules, long

  1. The last 3 bars all closed down
  2. Members only
  3. Close is below the daily high of two days ago

Entry rules, short

  1. The last bar closed up
  2. Members only
  3. Close is above the daily low of two days ago

Exit rules

  1. Members only
  2. Close a short when price closes below the 90-period SMA
  3. No stop loss or target

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-09-16
InstrumentFTSE 100, 4 hours
Spread2 points
Contracts2
Starting capital1,000,000
CostsSpread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
BarsUp to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested2026-09-16

Parameters

positionSize
Contracts per trade, as published
2
upBars
Up bars in a row needed before a short
1
downBars
Down bars in a row needed before a long
3
bandPeriod
Bollinger Band length
20
daysBack
Daily bar whose low / high must be exceeded
2
exitPeriod
SMA that price must revert through to exit
90

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
FTSE 100Best run4 hoursn/a 84566.157,173 EUR-5,217
Dow JonesDailyn/a 37266.1321,090 EUR-20,669
FTSE 100Dailyn/a 29073.1016,131 EUR-6,658

Charts

Results by run

Net profit against max drawdown

Net profitMax drawdown
0-25K-13K13K25KDow Jones · DailyFTSE 100 · DailyFTSE 100 · 4 hours

The code

ProBuilder, rewritten to house standard

Every file in the library uses the same header, the same section order and the same variable names. The numbers above were produced by the original version before the rewrite, and the rewrite has not yet been compiled in ProRealTime.

// ============================================================
// Bollinger Band Fade
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Long & short
// Timeframe tested: 4 hours
// ============================================================

// --- Settings ---
DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false
DEFPARAM PreloadBars = 10000

// --- Parameters ---
positionSize = 2          // contracts per trade, as published
upBars = 1                // up bars in a row needed before a short
downBars = 3              // down bars in a row needed before a long
bandPeriod = 20           // Bollinger Band length
daysBack = 2              // daily bar whose low / high must be exceeded
exitPeriod = 90           // SMA that price must revert through to exit

// --- Indicators ---
exitMA = Average[exitPeriod](close)

25 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Read this first

Known weaknesses

  • There is no stop loss. A trend that keeps running away from the entry is only cut when price crosses the 90-period SMA or an opposite signal reverses the trade.
  • Profit factor was not recorded because only optimization sweep data exists for this strategy.
  • On Dow Jones daily the max drawdown of EUR 20,668.80 almost matched the net profit of EUR 21,090.00.
  • The best run earned EUR 7,172.80 against a max drawdown of EUR 5,217.40, with an average trade of only EUR 8.49 across 845 trades.

Indicators used

Bollinger BandsSMA

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button above the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Questions

About this strategy

Can I run the Bollinger Band Fade live in ProOrder?

Yes, the code is written for ProRealTime automated trading. The published version trades 2 contracts per signal, so check that size against your own account before going live.

Which markets was it tested on?

FTSE 100 on the 4 hour chart gave the headline run with EUR 7,172.80 net profit over 845 trades. FTSE 100 daily (EUR 16,130.60) and Dow Jones daily (EUR 21,090.00) were also positive, though the Dow run had a much deeper drawdown.

How much drawdown should I expect at this size?

At 2 contracts the best run had a max drawdown of EUR 5,217.40. Plan capital around that figure, and remember there is no stop loss to limit a single trade.

Why the 4 hour timeframe?

It gives enough bars for the band and the three-bar down sequence to set up often while filtering out intraday noise. The daily chart showed fewer trades but a higher win rate of 73.1% on FTSE 100.

Related

Strategies like this one

Bollinger Squeeze

Uses the same indicator.

14.30 PF · 86 trades

Bollinger Reversal

Best run on the same market, FTSE 100.

1.74 PF · 117 trades

Monday Dip Buy

Also a mean reversion strategy.

n/a PF · 146 trades

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Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs