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Strategies / Mean reversion / Simplicissimus Short

Simplicissimus Short: Fading Dips Inside an Uptrend

It sells short when the close is above the 50 EMA but has slipped under the 2 EMA. Trades run on weekdays and skip January, March and October. Stop and target are both 2% from entry.

Mean reversionShort onlyIntradayEUR/USD30 min
n/aProfit factor
23,173Net profit USD
51.39%Win rate
216Trades
-22,636Max drawdown
107Avg trade

Best run of 2. EUR/USD, 30 min, spread 1, from run sweeps:2026-09-17-EURUSD-30m-opt.tsv:2.

Entry rules, short

  1. The close is above the 50-period EMA
  2. Members only
  3. Weekday (Monday to Friday) and not January, March or October

Exit rules

  1. Stop loss at 2% from entry
  2. Members only

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-09-17
InstrumentEUR/USD, 30 minutes
Spread1 points
Contracts1
Starting capital1,000,000
CostsSpread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
BarsUp to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested2026-09-17

Parameters

positionSize
Contracts per trade
1
pricePeriod
EMA length for the price line (1 = the close)
1
dipPeriod
Short EMA the price line must fall below
2
trendPeriod
EMA the price line must still be above
50
skipMonthFirst
No entries in January
1
skipMonthSecond
No entries in March
3
skipMonthThird
No entries in October
10
stopLossPct
Protective stop, percent of entry price
2
takeProfitPct
Profit target, percent of entry price
2

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
EUR/USDBest run30 minn/a 21651.3923,173 USD-22,636
USD/JPY5 minn/a 5754.39166,970 JPY-146,470

Charts

Results by run

Net profit against max drawdown

Net profitMax drawdown
0-200K-100K100K200KUSD/JPY · 5 minEUR/USD · 30 min

The code

ProBuilder, rewritten to house standard

Every file in the library uses the same header, the same section order and the same variable names. The numbers above were produced by the original version before the rewrite, and the rewrite has not yet been compiled in ProRealTime.

// ============================================================
// Simplicissimus Short
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Mean reversion
// Direction: Short only
// Timeframe tested: 30 minutes
// ============================================================

// --- Settings ---
DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

// --- Parameters ---
positionSize = 1          // contracts per trade
pricePeriod = 1           // EMA length for the price line (1 = the close)
dipPeriod = 2             // short EMA the price line must fall below
trendPeriod = 50          // EMA the price line must still be above
skipMonthFirst = 1        // no entries in January
skipMonthSecond = 3       // no entries in March
skipMonthThird = 10       // no entries in October
stopLossPct = 2           // protective stop, percent of entry price
takeProfitPct = 2         // profit target, percent of entry price

// --- Indicators ---
tradeMonth = OpenMonth <> skipMonthFirst AND OpenMonth <> skipMonthSecond AND OpenMonth <> skipMonthThird
tradeDay = OpenDayOfWeek >= 1 AND OpenDayOfWeek <= 5
priceLine = ExponentialAverage[pricePeriod](close)
dipMA = ExponentialAverage[dipPeriod](close)
trendMA = ExponentialAverage[trendPeriod](close)

11 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Read this first

Known weaknesses

  • Max drawdown on the best run was USD 22,636.0, almost as large as the USD 23,173.0 net profit.
  • Stop and target are equal, and the win rate is only 51.39%, so the edge per trade is small.
  • Only two instruments were tested, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, with 57 trades on USD/JPY.
  • Profit factor was not recorded because only sweep data exists.

Indicators used

EMA

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button above the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Questions

About this strategy

Can Simplicissimus Short run in ProOrder?

Yes, it is short only with percent stop and target. The rewritten code is not compile-checked, so demo test it.

How did it do on each market?

EUR/USD 30 minutes made USD 23,173.0 over 216 trades. USD/JPY 5 minutes made JPY 166,970.0 with a JPY 146,470.0 drawdown on 57 trades.

How much capital for 1 contract?

With 1 contract the best run had a USD 22,636.0 drawdown. That is the minimum buffer to plan for.

Why skip certain months?

The code skips January, March and October. Those filters cut trades and may be fitted to the tested data, so check them on your own data.

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Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs