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Strategies / Breakout / Crude Oil Sell Rupture

Crude Oil Sell Rupture: Shorting Volume Spikes

The system goes short when a bearish bar has a range and volume above 3 times their 276-bar averages while three Wilder averages of the lows point down. It aims for a 30 point target with a 60 point stop.

BreakoutShort onlyIntradayGBP/USD30 min
n/aProfit factor
925Net profit USD
70.90%Win rate
244Trades
-599Max drawdown
3.79Avg trade

Best run of 12. GBP/USD, 30 min, spread 1.5, from run sweeps:2026-09-25-GBPUSD-30m-opt.tsv:2.

Entry rules, short

  1. Members only
  2. Volume is above 3 times its 276-bar average
  3. The 24, 48 and 96-period Wilder averages of the lows are stacked downward (24 below 48 below 96)

Exit rules

  1. Stop loss 60 points
  2. Members only

Test conditions

PeriodUp to 2026-09-25
InstrumentGBP/USD, 30 minutes
Spread1.5 points
Contracts1
Starting capital1,000,000
CostsSpread only. Commissions and overnight financing are not included.
BarsUp to 200,000 bars, fewer where the instrument has less history
Last tested2026-09-25

Parameters

positionSize
Contracts per trade
1
averagePeriod
Length of the average range and average volume
276
rangeMultiplier
Signal bar range must exceed this multiple of the average range
3
volumeMultiplier
Signal bar volume must exceed this multiple of the average volume
3
fastPeriod
Fast Wilder average of the lows
24
midPeriod
Middle Wilder average of the lows
48
slowPeriod
Slow Wilder average of the lows
96
stopLossPoints
Protective stop in points
60
takeProfitPoints
Profit target in points
30

Every run

Markets and timeframes tested

MarketTimeframePFTradesWin %NetMax DD
GBP/USDBest run30 minn/a 24470.90925 USD-599
EUR/USD3 minn/a 19769.044,152 USD-3,935
Silver1 minn/a 10474.043,450 USD-1,544
GBP/USD2 minn/a 13973.38840 USD-284
GBP/USD15 minn/a 17272.09823 USD-277
GBP/USD3 minn/a 18370.49630 USD-417
Brent Crude4 hoursn/a 3278.12330 EUR-180
Gold1 hourn/a 6272.58330 EUR-262
GBP/USD1 hourn/a 10669.81287 USD-249
SilverDailyn/a 1100.00150 USD-0.00
GBP/USDDailyn/a 2100.0060.00 USD-29.10
Nikkei 225Dailyn/a 1100.0030.00 USD-0.00

Charts

Results by run

Net profit against max drawdown

Net profitMax drawdown
0-5K-3K3K5KEUR/USD · 3 minSilver · 1 minGBP/USD · 30 minGBP/USD · 2 minGBP/USD · 15 minGBP/USD · 3 minBrent Crude · 4 hoursGold · 1 hourGBP/USD · 1 hourSilver · DailyGBP/USD · DailyNikkei 225 · Daily

The code

ProBuilder, rewritten to house standard

Every file in the library uses the same header, the same section order and the same variable names. The numbers above were produced by the original version before the rewrite, and the rewrite has not yet been compiled in ProRealTime.

// ============================================================
// Crude Oil Sell Rupture
// ProRealAlgos Strategy Library  |  prorealalgos.com
// Type: Breakout
// Direction: Short only
// Timeframe tested: 30 minutes
// ============================================================

// --- Settings ---
DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false

// --- Parameters ---
positionSize = 1              // contracts per trade
averagePeriod = 276           // length of the average range and average volume
rangeMultiplier = 3           // signal bar range must exceed this multiple of the average range
volumeMultiplier = 3          // signal bar volume must exceed this multiple of the average volume
fastPeriod = 24               // fast Wilder average of the lows
midPeriod = 48                // middle Wilder average of the lows
slowPeriod = 96               // slow Wilder average of the lows
stopLossPoints = 60           // protective stop in points
takeProfitPoints = 30         // profit target in points

// --- Indicators ---
avgRange = Average[averagePeriod](range)
avgVolume = Average[averagePeriod](volume)

// A rupture bar is bearish with both range and volume far above normal.
wideBearBar = range > avgRange * rangeMultiplier AND close < open
heavyBearBar = volume > avgVolume * volumeMultiplier AND close < open
ruptureBar = wideBearBar AND heavyBearBar

fastMA = WilderAverage[fastPeriod](low)
midMA = WilderAverage[midPeriod](low)
slowMA = WilderAverage[slowPeriod](low)

12 more lines: the entry and exit rules.

Read this first

Known weaknesses

  • The stop is twice the target, so the 70.9% win rate is needed just to stay positive. A small drop in accuracy would turn it negative.
  • Despite the name, no US Crude Oil run is listed. The best run was on GBP/USD 30 minutes, with net profit of USD 925.30 against a USD 598.70 drawdown.
  • Several runs are tiny: Silver Daily and Nikkei 225 Daily had 1 trade each, and GBP/USD Daily had 2.
  • Profit factor was not recorded because only sweep data exists, and the 60 and 30 point settings mean very different things on each instrument.

Indicators used

SMAWilder AverageVolume

How to load it

  1. Copy the code with the copy button above the code block.
  2. In ProRealTime, open a chart of the instrument and timeframe you want to test, then open ProOrder > New trading system and choose "Create with programming".
  3. Paste the code, give the system a name and save it.
  4. Click "Backtest", set your own spread and position size, and run it before you consider trading it live.

Questions

About this strategy

Does it work in ProOrder?

Yes, it is a short only automated system with 1 contract, a 60 point stop and a 30 point target. The rewritten code has not been compile checked yet.

Which instruments did it trade?

GBP/USD, EUR/USD, Silver, Brent Crude, Gold and Nikkei 225 were tested, and all 11 runs ended positive. EUR/USD 3 minutes made USD 4,152.00 but had a USD 3,935.00 drawdown.

How much risk is there at 1 contract?

On the GBP/USD 30 minute run the maximum drawdown was USD 598.70 with 1 contract. Size up only with that ratio to profit in mind.

Why use a 276-bar average?

It sets a long baseline for what a normal bar looks like, so only true spikes in range and volume count. On a 30 minute chart that covers several trading days.

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Past backtest results do not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice. Curated and maintained by ProRealAlgos. ProRealTime™ is a trademark of ProRealTime SAS. prorealalgos.comStatsDocs